Multiple factors drive German price acceleration

Recommended Posts

The German Federal Bureau of Statistics showed that the German consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8% from the same period last year, rising by 0.9% from the previous year. Data show that German price levels have an accelerated growth trend. In June this year, the consumer price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, and in July, the growth rate was rapidly upgraded to 3.8%, reached the highest value in 27 years. German Federal Bank (Central Bank) President Weidman said recently that German CPI growth rate may reach 5%, but he believes that this round of price increase is still short-term.

Although experts have repeatedly expressed that the current price of German prices does not have sustainable and will not bring systematic risks to German economies. However, as prices have maintained relatively high growth in many months, the worry in the market has increased significantly.

Analysis believes that the factors currently pushing prices have the following aspects: First, the rapid rise in energy prices has risen to the overall price level. Last year was affected by new coronal pneumonia, global oil prices fell sharply, and this year's oil prices rebounded, and global energy prices rebounded significantly from last year. Second, the global supply chain bottleneck still exists, leading to the price of raw materials and parts such as raw materials and components, causing corporate production costs to rise. The third is the end of German consumption tax relief policy, making prices significantly increased last year. During the epidemic last year, in order to stimulate consumption, the German government reduced the value-added tax rate. This year's policy is canceled, making the price rebound.

What is worth paying attention is that recently, the global shipping market is affected by factors such as epidemic, extreme weather, and there is a trend that has continued sharply increased, and has become an important promotion of the raising price level. Since the second half of last year, the global shipping capacity is insufficient, the freight is rising, causing the cost of transportation. Data show that international shipping prices have risen for 17 weeks. Recently, Delta variant strains rapidly spread, leading to severe congestion in many important ports around the world, bringing further impact on the sea industry, possibly intensifying the global supply chain tension.

In the case of operational tension and supply chain bottleneck, in order to ensure stability of raw materials, German companies began to adopt "preventive measures" and significantly increase raw material stocks. Many companies raise raw materials from 3 months to 6 months prior to the epidemic to 6 months to 12 months. This further pushes the market market in a certain extent.

In this case, German automobiles, machinery manufacturing, and steel and other industries have lowered the performance expectations in the second half of this year, many companies said that the price of product prices has continued to rise.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Please sign in to comment

You will be able to leave a comment after signing in

Sign In Now